MNB Puts Housing Overvaluation at 16.5%

The Magyar Nemzeti Bank's quarterly rationale estimated housing-market overvaluation at 16.5% and said collateral leverage on new mortgages had stabilised at a high level. The central bank therefore kept the countercyclical buffer at 1.0% and applies a separate 1.0% sectoral buffer to residential and commercial property risks from the start of 2026.

The indicator is a system-level risk signal, not a valuation of any individual home. Higher bank capital increases loss-absorbing capacity but can also affect credit pricing and supply. Our report on the quarterly fall in Hungarian house prices covers price movements, while our article on the Rákosrendező development agreement covers supply.

The MNB reviews the rate quarterly. The next decision should be read alongside mortgage growth, loan-to-value ratios, transaction numbers and prices relative to incomes.