British retail sales volumes fell in September

The ONS release of 23 October showed that seasonally adjusted retail sales volumes in Great Britain fell by 0.4 percent in September from the previous month. The third quarter nevertheless recorded growth of 0.7 percent from the preceding quarter. Hungarian suppliers should therefore also examine order horizons when assessing British consumer demand.

Monthly and quarterly changes use different bases. Simply subtracting one from the other does not reveal how much an exporter's order book has deteriorated. That would require data on the relevant products, customers and delivery schedule. A short decline can coexist with quarterly growth established earlier.

The ONS report covers England, Wales and Scotland. When reading volumes, the key is the quantity trend after removing price changes; a retailer's revenue measured in money can follow a different path. For a supplier budgeting in forints, the proceeds of an invoice in foreign currency are a further separate question.

Our earlier trade summary adds cross-border goods movements, while the EU consumer confidence report covers buying sentiment. These are reference points with different geographical coverage. The next monthly figure and any revision to this estimate should help distinguish temporary fluctuation from more persistent weakening in demand.

A supplier can usefully record the order date, delivery month and payment deadline separately. Changes in retail consumption may appear at different stages of that process without producing the same monthly movement.