158.8 Million Brazilians Vote on Sunday

According to Brazil's top electoral court, the TSE, 158,765,543 voters can cast ballots on October 4 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. local time. The first round covers the presidency, 27 governorships, 54 Senate seats, 513 federal-deputy seats, 1,035 state-deputy seats and 24 district seats. If no presidential or gubernatorial candidate wins an absolute majority, a runoff will be held on October 25.

The business relevance for Hungary and Europe comes from Brazil's role in commodities, food and energy exports and from EU–Mercosur trade ties. A new government's fiscal targets can affect the real, sovereign yields and investment decisions by major exporters. Those channels can influence global soy, iron-ore and energy prices, as well as European companies with South American exposure.

The TSE candidate database was still being updated on October 2, so final candidate status should be checked on the official platform. Campaign pledges are not enacted budget decisions. Our report on sanctions networks and our EU–China trade investigation coverage show how politics can become an economic risk.

The next key information is the certified first-round result and whether a runoff is needed. Coalition negotiations, detailed fiscal pledges and the central bank's response will then matter for markets.