Five issues shaping markets on 30 September

In brief

• Hungary's market starts from a weak close while global bond yields remain elevated.
• US labour demand has cooled, with inflation and GDP data next.
• Dilution and funding costs are the common risk across the corporate stories.

1. Our 29 September market-close review showed the BUX down 1.36%, with MOL leading the decline at 3.44%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.17%. Hungary's open therefore inherits weak domestic equity momentum and still-elevated dollar yields.

2. The August JOLTS report showed 7.079 million vacancies, 256,000 fewer than the revised July figure. John C. Williams said “there is no need for urgency” on another rate move; the New York Fed summary stressed a sustained return to the 2% inflation goal. The BEA calendar schedules the 30 September GDP and PCE releases for 14:30 Budapest time.

3. Our daily in-depth AMC analysis found adjusted EBITDA up 69.6% while the weighted average share count rose 66.7%; our illustrative per-share measure therefore improved by only 1.7%. Hungarian retail investors need to track dilution, debt and dollar exposure alongside the operating recovery.

4. The ECB will change collateral valuation and haircut rules from 30 November. This is not an interest-rate decision, but it alters the risk terms of central-bank funding for euro-area banks and is indirectly relevant to regional credit costs.

5. China's central bank cut the PSL facility rate by 0.25 percentage point, from 1.75% to 1.5%. Cheaper policy-bank funding may support industrial and infrastructure finance; actual loan deployment will be the important follow-up for European exporters.