US job openings fall by 256,000

In brief

• US job vacancies, a measure of labour demand, declined.
• The monthly comparison uses the revised July figure.
• USD exposure also matters for Hungarian investors.

A new reference point for interest rates

US employers had 7.079 million job openings at the end of August, 256,000 fewer than July's 7.335 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics table released on September 29. The figures are seasonally adjusted and the August estimate is preliminary. In its release, the BLS describes the change as “little changed”.

Hungarian investors have reason to follow the release because labour demand is one input into the interest-rate outlook. The forint value of a USD-denominated share or bond depends on both its price and the exchange rate. The report does not establish a certain direction for share prices or the USD.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, measures vacancies on the last business day of the month, whereas hires and separations cover movements throughout the month. A decline in vacancies therefore cannot be treated as an equal loss of employment. A position that is no longer advertised or is withdrawn is a different economic event from an existing job being eliminated.

The revised baseline matters

We used the BLS's updated July figure for the monthly comparison. Our subtraction gives a monthly difference of minus 256,000; against 6.919 million a year earlier, however, there were 160,000 more unfilled positions. Monthly and annual directions consequently differ, and revisions to preliminary estimates may change the picture.

Our morning Wall Street preview looked ahead to the release; the actual result is now available. Our US labour-market week overview explains the wider release calendar. Without current, authorised price data, we do not attach a quantified market reaction to this report.

The BLS says the next JOLTS release is scheduled for November 3. The open question is whether subsequent data will point to persistently weakening demand or continued limited labour-market turnover.