IMF sees Hungary's 2026 deficit at 7–7.5%

The IMF staff concluding statement projects Hungarian GDP growth of about 2% in 2026 and puts the fiscal deficit at 7–7.5% of GDP. The mission held talks in Budapest from 23 September to 6 October 2026. This is the staff's view and is still subject to management approval and discussion by the IMF Executive Board.

The high deficit matters to Hungarian households and companies because financing costs, government-bond yields and the forint risk premium can affect the pricing of loans and savings. The IMF supports pausing rate cuts until there is more durable evidence of disinflation and says the 2.5% inflation target taking effect in 2028 may require tighter monetary discipline.

Staff say about €16 billion in previously frozen EU funds, roughly 7% of GDP, could improve investment and financing conditions if accompanied by transparent procurement and stronger governance. This is a conditional scenario, not an approved disbursement. The National Bank of Hungary also published the statement.

Related reading includes our analysis of September inflation and housing-market risks. The next decisive points are IMF management approval and Executive Board discussion, together with Hungary's medium-term fiscal programme.